Highest temperature in NYC on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

LaGuardia Airport's peak temperature on 11 June 2026 will be recorded and resolved against predefined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data from Weather Underground, with the highest reading across all times on that date determining the outcome. New York City's early June climate typically sits in the mid-to-upper 70s Fahrenheit, though heat waves can push readings into the mid-80s or beyond.

Historical June temperatures at LaGuardia show considerable variance. The station's records indicate that 11 June has seen highs ranging from the low 70s to the mid-80s across different years, with occasional outliers reaching into the upper 80s during anomalous warm patterns. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting resolution or the market structure contains ranges positioned above typical early-June norms. Comparable early-summer heat events in the Northeast have occurred, but June typically remains cooler than July and August peaks.

The key dependency for this market is the Atlantic weather pattern during early June 2026. High-pressure systems tracking northward from the Gulf or Bermuda High positioning would drive temperatures upward, whilst coastal low-pressure systems or northeasterly flow would suppress readings. Seasonal forecasting models and real-time weather updates closer to the settlement date will provide traders with actionable signals. The settlement window closes at midday on 11 June, meaning intraday temperature movements during morning and early afternoon hours will determine final resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.