Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

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Market context

LaGuardia Airport will record its highest temperature on 12 June 2026, with the reading taken from the official National Weather Service station and verified through Weather Underground's historical database. The settlement hinges on a single daily maximum, measured in Fahrenheit, which will fall into one of several predefined temperature bands.

New York's June weather typically ranges between 75°F and 85°F for daily highs, though heat waves can push readings into the low 90s. Historical data from LaGuardia shows that temperatures exceeding 90°F occur in roughly one-third of June days during warmer years, whilst readings below 70°F are uncommon. The 30-year normal high for mid-June sits around 78°F. Comparable June 12th records from recent decades provide calibration: the station recorded 88°F on this date in 2021 and 82°F in 2019, illustrating the typical variability within a single calendar day across years.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service forecast for the Northeast as the settlement date approaches, particularly any heat dome or high-pressure system positioning over the Mid-Atlantic region in early June 2026. Upper-atmosphere patterns and sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic will influence whether subtropical air masses reach New York. The forecast becomes actionable roughly seven to ten days before the event, when medium-range models show clearer consensus on whether anomalous warmth or seasonal conditions will prevail. Current crowd pricing at 100% suggests confidence in resolution occurring, though the specific temperature band remains the substantive trading question.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 12? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.