Highest temperature in NYC on June 21?

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Market context

The high at LaGuardia on 21 June was always going to be driven by the day’s warmest afternoon reading rather than the morning start, so the market is really a check on whether New York stayed in the upper 70s or pushed into the low to mid-80s. The crowd has priced the event at 0% YES, but comparable NYC temperature markets have often clustered tightly around the forecast high, with recent markets resolving in the low 80s when AccuWeather and model guidance pointed to similar conditions.[1][8]

The clearest comparables are the 3 June and 19 June temperature markets, where LaGuardia histories and exchange listings showed highs landing in the 82–83°F area, and the National Weather Service’s LaGuardia record for 21 June has already logged a 83°F maximum in the daily climatological report.[3][7][9] That places the settlement outcome squarely in the range most traders would have expected if sunshine held through the afternoon and sea-breeze moderation stayed limited.[7][8]

What matters now is the final daily history entry from Weather Underground, because the market settles on the highest temperature recorded for the full day at KLGA, not on any single forecast or public headline.[1][6] Traders would normally watch for any late-day update in the station history page, plus whether the airport saw an isolated warmer reading than nearby city stations, since coastal mixing can leave LaGuardia a degree or two off Manhattan proper.[1][5][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.