Highest temperature in NYC on June 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 22 June 2026, which settled at 72°F by 7:40 pm, well below the 76–77°F range implied by active prediction markets. This outcome renders the 0% YES probability for higher ranges entirely accurate, as the day’s peak failed to breach the threshold for any elevated bracket.

Historical June data frames this result clearly: LaGuardia’s climate normal for maximum temperature is 83°F, with a record high of 98°F set in 2012, yet recent years show frequent days capped near 70–75°F. The 2026 June forecast anticipated highs between 75–88°F, but actual conditions delivered a cooler profile, aligning with the historic average of 70.3°F for the month. Traders should note that 72°F falls within the typical range for late June, making extreme highs statistically rare without a heatwave catalyst.

Key catalysts to watch include the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports and Wunderground’s real-time updates, which confirm settlement values. A recent Robinhood market for 21 June also resolved near 72°F, suggesting a consistent cooling trend across the region. No major weather announcements or system disruptions altered the forecast, and with settlement finalised, no further dependencies remain. The absence of a heatwave or atmospheric anomaly explains the lack of higher temperature readings.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.