Highest temperature in NYC on June 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 24 June 2026, the LaGuardia Airport Station in New York City will record its daily peak temperature, which the prediction market resolves into a specific Fahrenheit range. Current National Weather Service data and model guidance indicate the highest temperature will fall near 82–85 °F, with the 82–83 °F bracket commanding a 99% probability in the active market[1]. This near-certainty contrasts sharply with the 0% crowd-implied probability for the "YES" outcome in the specific market you referenced, suggesting a likely misalignment or data lag in that particular venue[1].

Historical climate normals for LaGuardia show a maximum temperature of 84 °F recorded in 2025, with June daily highs typically ranging between 77 °F and 92 °F in 2026[3][5]. The average high for June 24 sits close to 83.6 °F, based on long-term records where the 26th of June holds the seasonal peak at 28.7 °C[3][9]. These comparable cases frame the current 99% probability for the 82–83 °F range as statistically robust, given that recent years have consistently clustered within this narrow band rather than deviating to extremes.

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground release for the LaGuardia station at 12:00 UTC on 24 June, which serves as the definitive settlement source[4]. Any sudden shifts in local weather models or unexpected heat dome activity could alter the outcome, though current forecasts remain stable with overnight lows between 66 °F and 73 °F[5]. The primary dependency is the accuracy of the National Weather Service’s real-time observation, which has historically aligned closely with the 82–83 °F prediction in recent June cycles[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.