Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

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Market context

The real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 26 June 2026, which will determine the outcome of this prediction market. Recent weather data shows a sharp cooling trend in late June, with the actual high on 26 June reaching only 71°F, well below the historical average of 84.2°F[7]. This contrasts with earlier June dates, such as 11 June, when temperatures soared to 94–95°F[2], and 23 June, where the high was 74–75°F[1]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES aligns with this cooling pattern, suggesting traders expect temperatures to remain in the lower ranges rather than spike into the 90s.

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts and any anomalies in atmospheric conditions that could reverse the cooling trend. AccuWeather’s June 2026 forecast for LaGuardia indicates daily highs between 77°F and 92°F, with an average high near 85°F[5]. However, the actual 26 June reading of 71°F suggests a significant deviation from expectations[7]. Watch for updates from the National Weather Service or Wunderground, as sudden shifts in cloud cover, wind patterns, or humidity could alter temperature outcomes. Any announcement of a heatwave or unusual weather system before settlement would be a critical catalyst for re-evaluating the 0% probability[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.