Highest temperature in NYC on June 6?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will determine which range wins this market. The settlement uses Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific date, measured in Fahrenheit across all daylight and evening hours at the airport's official monitoring station.

New York City's early June temperatures typically cluster between 75°F and 85°F, with historical data showing that extreme heat above 90°F remains uncommon for this period. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a specific temperature threshold that appears unlikely given seasonal norms, or uncertainty about which range the market offers. June averages in the city sit around 78°F, and readings above 88°F occur in fewer than 10% of years historically. The last time LaGuardia recorded 90°F or higher in early June was 2018, making such outcomes statistically infrequent but not unprecedented.

Traders monitoring this market should track the National Weather Service's extended forecast as June approaches, particularly any heat dome patterns developing across the Northeast in late May. Atlantic tropical systems occasionally influence early June weather, though they typically bring moisture rather than extreme heat. The specific temperature range boundaries offered in this market will be crucial—a range centred on 82°F would carry substantially different implied probability than one set at 88°F or above. Current atmospheric indices suggest no exceptional heat anomaly is developing for that week, which may explain the minimal trading activity.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.