Highest temperature in NYC on June 7?

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Market context

LaGuardia Airport will record its highest temperature on 7 June 2026, with settlement determined by Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific date. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will contain the day's peak reading.

New York's early June weather typically ranges between 75–85°F at LaGuardia, though heat waves can push readings into the low 90s. Historical June 7th data shows considerable variability: the station has recorded highs as low as 68°F and as high as 89°F on this calendar date across different years. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects the market's nascent stage rather than a genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded—a technical impossibility given the settlement mechanism depends on actual observed data from a functioning weather station.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecast as June 2026 approaches, particularly any alerts for heat domes or unusual pressure systems affecting the Northeast corridor. Atlantic tropical systems occasionally influence early summer temperatures in the region, though June typically precedes peak hurricane season. The specific resolution source—Wunderground's LaGuardia station data—is publicly accessible and historically reliable, eliminating ambiguity around measurement methodology or station changes that might complicate settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.