Highest temperature in NYC on May 30?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

New York City's weather on 30 May 2026 will determine which temperature band captures the day's peak reading at LaGuardia Airport. The settlement hinges on the highest temperature recorded across all daylight and evening hours, measured in Fahrenheit and sourced from Weather Underground's historical data for that specific station.

May temperatures at LaGuardia typically range between 70–85°F, with historical data showing that late May sits near the transition into summer conditions. The 30-year average high for this date hovers around 78°F, though the airport has recorded extremes well above 90°F during anomalous heat events in May. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting resolution parameters or treating this as a placeholder market; comparable May weather markets at major US airports show meaningful variance depending on whether Atlantic systems or high-pressure ridges dominate the pattern.

Traders should monitor the extended forecast as May 2026 approaches, particularly tracking whether ridge-building or tropical moisture patterns establish themselves in the Atlantic basin. The National Weather Service's 8–14 day outlook, updated weekly, will signal whether blocking patterns favour unseasonably warm conditions or whether typical spring variability persists. Any significant warming trend in the days preceding 30 May—visible in model consensus by mid-May—would shift probabilities toward higher temperature bands, whilst coastal low-pressure systems could suppress readings toward the cooler end of the range.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on May 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.