Highest temperature in Paris on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris is entering 5 August with a forecast high around the high 20s Celsius rather than any extreme spell, which is why the market is pricing a **0% YES** outcome for a Paris-Le Bourget maximum in the upper bands. AccuWeather’s August outlook shows Paris at 80°F/61°F on 5 August, with the following days only a degree or two warmer, while Sortiraparis’ early-August forecast points to a dry, sunny Wednesday with a peak of about 29°C. Those numbers sit comfortably below the kind of threshold that would shift the settlement range to the top end.[1][19]

The historical frame is mixed: Paris can get very hot in August, but the city’s typical summer profile is much softer than the 2026 heat-wave peaks seen elsewhere in France. Holiday-weather says the highest August temperature ever recorded in Paris has reached 40°C, yet current comparable forecasts are several degrees lower than that ceiling. That gap explains why the market leans heavily against an outlier jump, even allowing for late changes in a continental summer setup.[16][17]

The main catalysts are updated local forecasts, any fresh heat advisory from French meteorological services, and whether the dry, sunny pattern holds through the morning and early afternoon before the settlement cut-off. If cloud cover, sea-breeze effects, or convective showers appear in the latest model runs, the day’s maximum would be capped lower; if a hotter air mass shifts in, traders would look for a quick repricing. Reuters reported France had already faced record-breaking heat earlier in the season, so the key question is not whether the country can run hot, but whether Paris gets the right synoptic setup on this specific day.[18][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.