Highest temperature in Paris on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris is bracing for an intense heatwave in mid-July 2026, with forecasters warning temperatures could soar between 36°C and 39°C, potentially reaching 40°C on some afternoons[4]. This aligns with historical patterns where canicules push Paris well above its average July high of 25–27°C, sometimes sustaining extreme heat for days[2]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome above the lowest range appears misaligned with these active forecasts, especially given that 24°C is the frontrunner at 100% in related markets, suggesting traders may be underestimating the severity of the incoming surge[1].

Traders should monitor updates from Météo-France regarding the heatwave’s persistence, which is expected to last until at least the end of the week following 14 July, with no clear end in sight[5]. Key catalysts include daily temperature reports from Wunderground for Paris-Le Bourget Airport, the official resolution source, and any announcements about Atlantic cooler air arriving, which forecasters believe could drop temperatures below 30°C by the end of the week[4]. The settlement window closes on 20 July at 12:00 UTC, meaning the final hours of the heatwave will directly determine the outcome, making real-time weather data critical for assessing the true probability of higher temperature ranges.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.