Highest temperature in Paris on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport is the key reference point for this market, and the most likely finish now sits in the mid-20s Celsius rather than anything extreme. Polymarket’s live book has **26°C** narrowly ahead at 45%, with **25°C** close behind at 42%, which is consistent with a fairly tight distribution around the local July norm.[1] July is Paris’s warmest month on average, with typical highs around **27.0°C** and modest rainfall, so a result in the mid-20s is a natural baseline for a day like this.[2]

Historical context also argues against the crowd’s 0% yes price being taken literally as a forecast of impossibility. Paris July highs usually cluster between the low-20s and mid-20s, and daily highs “almost never” exceed 31°C in long-run climate summaries, which means the relevant question is whether today pushes a little above or below the usual band rather than whether it becomes exceptional.[4][6] In practical terms, that leaves the 24-27°C range as the most important zone for traders, with small shifts in the afternoon forecast having outsized impact on the settlement bucket.

The main catalysts are the short-term forecast updates for northern France, especially any change in cloud cover, rain timing, or wind that could cap the afternoon high, and any late adjustment from the Paris area forecast issued by major weather services.[3][4] Because this market settles on the **highest temperature recorded all day** at Paris-Le Bourget, traders should watch the warmest part of the afternoon closely: a clearer, sunnier window can lift the reading by a degree or two, while showers or earlier cloud build-out can keep the peak trapped in the 25-26°C band.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on July 22?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.