Highest temperature in Paris on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport is the settlement point, so the market will be decided by the day’s *single highest reading* there rather than an average city temperature. That matters because a brief afternoon surge, even if the rest of the day is milder, can shift the final outcome into a higher band if the airport station catches a warm spell or a shower front moves through later than expected. Current crowd pricing still leans to the mid-20s, with 24°C the front-runner and 23°C close behind, which is a modest distribution rather than a clear weather consensus.[1]

The comparable frame is a Paris July climatology that usually sits near 26°C for average highs, but with a wide spread in the monthly daily range, from roughly 20°C up to the low 40s in hotter years.[5] That spread is why a 0% YES reading can be misleading if it reflects a narrowly defined bucket rather than the broader temperature risk: late-July heat in Paris can still overshoot modelled expectations quickly when a warm airmass settles over the region.[3][5] Recent Paris forecasts for 26 July pointed to a cloudier, showery day with temperatures around 21–23°C, while also flagging a hotter spell in the wider region that could lift values towards 30°C later on.[2]

The key trader watchpoints are the final convective and frontal updates from French forecasters and any adjustment to the regional heat pattern over northern France, because those are what move the daytime peak at Le Bourget most directly. If the hot spell persists into the afternoon, the airport station could still print a higher maximum than a city forecast suggests; if showers arrive earlier, the cap on the day’s top reading is likely to stay close to the low- or mid-20s.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on July 26?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.