Highest temperature in Paris on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport will record its highest temperature on 27 July 2026, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Wunderground. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either incomplete pricing or expectation of extreme heat that exceeds available brackets.

July temperatures at Paris-Le Bourget typically peak between 24–27°C, though the station has recorded highs of 28–30°C during heat waves. The record for late July stands at 34.8°C (set in 2003 during the European heat wave), but such extremes remain statistically rare. Recent summers have seen occasional days exceeding 30°C, particularly in 2022 and 2023 when mid-summer peaks reached 32–33°C. The 0% probability reading suggests traders may be waiting for seasonal forecasts or that the market's temperature brackets don't align with expected outcomes.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting models from mid-July onwards, particularly from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which typically provide reliable 10–14 day outlooks by late June. Atmospheric patterns driving heat waves—such as high-pressure systems over western Europe or warm air masses from North Africa—become clearer in the final two weeks before the settlement date. Any significant heat wave warnings issued by French authorities in early July would shift expectations materially, as would blocking patterns that trap warm air over the continent.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on July 27?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.