Highest temperature in Paris on June 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to establish the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 2 June 2026. Settlement depends on historical weather data from Wunderground, with resolution occurring at midday on the day itself. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are currently pricing in no expectation of extreme heat for this specific date.

June temperatures at Paris-Le Bourget typically range between 15°C and 25°C, with historical records showing that days exceeding 30°C occur roughly once per decade in early June. The station's all-time June high stands at 37.1°C, recorded in 2022 during an exceptional heatwave. Recent decades show a gradual warming trend, with the 2010s and 2020s producing more frequent high-temperature outliers than the preceding period. Comparable early-June events in 2003, 2006, and 2022 saw temperatures spike above 30°C when Atlantic high-pressure systems stalled over western Europe.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasts from late May onwards, particularly tracking whether high-pressure systems develop over France during the settlement window. The Météo-France extended outlook and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) models will provide the most reliable signals by late May. Any sustained anticyclonic pattern pushing northwards from the Mediterranean or Iberian Peninsula could materially shift probabilities. Current seasonal models suggest near-normal conditions for early June 2026, though such forecasts carry substantial uncertainty at a six-month horizon.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on June 2?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.