Highest temperature in Paris on June 23?

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Market context

The underlying event is a forecasted extreme heatwave striking France, with Paris expected to breach 40°C by mid-week, shattering the typical June maximum of 21°C and rendering the crowd-implied 0% probability for high temperatures historically unsound. While long-term averages suggest mild, changeable skies with daytime highs hovering around 21°C and 7 hours of sunshine, the current atmospheric pattern has shifted dramatically toward a severe, extended heat dome that is unlikely to subside before Friday [2][3]. Recent records confirm Paris already endured its warmest June night at 24.2°C and set a new daytime peak of 37.7°C, with meteorological agencies warning that temperatures could rise to 42°C by Sunday, placing over half the country under a heat alert [3][4].

Traders must monitor the immediate progression of this heatwave, specifically the Meteo France forecast predicting a considerable temperature increase starting Sunday and lasting until Tuesday, which directly impacts the settlement window on 23 June [4]. The primary catalyst is the confirmed heat alert covering a significant portion of France, with forecasts indicating daytime highs exceeding 40°C and nighttime lows remaining above 20°C, a deviation of 10°C to 15°C above the mid-June average [3][8]. Although the settlement source is Wunderground data for the Paris-Le Bourget station, the regional intensity of this unprecedented heat event, which has already caused 18 deaths across France, suggests the recorded temperature will likely fall into the highest range rather than the typical moderate bracket [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.