Highest temperature in Paris on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris is currently experiencing the tail end of a historic heatwave that has pushed temperatures to record levels across Île-de-France, with Sunday 28 June forecast to be milder yet still reach highs near 35°C before a risk of thunderstorms [1]. The crowd-implied 0% probability for a specific temperature range likely reflects uncertainty about whether the cooling trend beginning Friday will fully materialise or if storm activity will suppress the peak temperature, despite the week’s extreme plateau that saw peaks near 40°C earlier [1]. Historical context from this same week shows Paris hitting 40.9°C on 24 June, the hottest June temperature ever recorded, and France recording an unprecedented 44.3°C nationally on 23 June, suggesting that while 28 June is cooler, the baseline remains exceptionally high [4][7].

Traders must watch the immediate meteorological announcements regarding the thunderstorm risk and the confirmation of the cooling trend, as a sudden downpour could drastically lower the maximum temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget [1]. The primary dependency is whether the gradual relief expected from Friday continues through the weekend or if the heatwave persists, a factor that Meteo-France has flagged with a red alert for 54 departments due to persisting high temperatures [2]. Recent reports confirm Paris reached 44 degrees Celsius yesterday, reinforcing the volatility of this period, so any official update from Météo-France on the storm timing or heat persistence will be the critical catalyst moving the line [9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on June 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

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Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.