Highest temperature in Paris on June 6?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport will record its highest temperature on 6 June 2026, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Wunderground. The market resolves to whichever temperature band captures the peak reading for that calendar day.

Early June in the Paris region typically sits in the 20–24°C range, though heat waves can push readings into the high 20s or low 30s. Historical precedent matters here: the Paris area recorded 40.3°C in June 2022 during an exceptional European heat event, but such extremes remain outliers. More commonly, early June temperatures cluster between 22–26°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a narrow expected range or uncertainty about which specific band the settlement will fall into, rather than dismissing the event itself as impossible.

Catalysts to monitor include European weather forecasting updates in late May and early June, particularly from Météo-France, which publishes extended outlooks roughly two weeks ahead. Any significant Atlantic pressure system or heat dome positioning over continental Europe in that window would shift expectations materially. The settlement window closes at midday on 6 June, meaning morning forecasts and any overnight temperature readings become critical to final positioning. Traders should cross-reference multiple forecast models as the date approaches, since single-day temperature bands can shift substantially with minor pressure pattern changes.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on June 6? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.