Highest temperature in Paris on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport will record its highest temperature on 26 May 2026, with settlement determined by historical data logged at the station. The market resolves to whichever temperature range contains the peak reading for that calendar day, sourced from Weather Underground's historical records once the date passes and data finalises.

May temperatures at Paris-Le Bourget typically range between 15–22°C, though the station has recorded highs exceeding 25°C during warm spells in late May. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which specific range will resolve or are waiting for seasonal forecasts closer to the date. Historical May records show variability: the station recorded 28.1°C on 28 May 2003 and 26.8°C on 25 May 2009, establishing that temperatures in the mid-to-high 20s are plausible but not guaranteed for this particular date.

Traders should monitor European weather patterns from April onwards, particularly Atlantic pressure systems and any early-season heat domes affecting northern France. The settlement window closes at midday on 26 May 2026, meaning the final temperature reading must be recorded before noon UTC. Any significant weather forecasts issued in the weeks preceding the date—particularly from Météo-France or European weather services—will inform whether conditions favour cooler spring temperatures or an unseasonable warm spell. The specificity of the date and single-station measurement means local microclimatic factors at Le Bourget become material to the outcome.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.