Highest temperature in Paris on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport will record a daily maximum temperature on 31 May 2026, with settlement determined by Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station and date. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or uncertainty about which bracket will ultimately contain the recorded high.

Late May in the Paris region typically sees daytime highs between 20–24°C, though anomalies occur regularly. Historical data from comparable years shows that 31 May temperatures at Le Bourget have ranged from lows around 16°C to highs exceeding 28°C. The 2003 European heat wave and subsequent warm springs provide reference points for extreme upside scenarios, whilst cooler maritime influences from the Atlantic can suppress temperatures into the lower ranges. Seasonal transition periods often produce volatile weather patterns across northern France, making single-day forecasts inherently uncertain at this distance.

Traders should monitor European weather pattern forecasts as May 2026 approaches, particularly the North Atlantic Oscillation and high-pressure system positioning over continental Europe. Spring temperature anomalies frequently correlate with broader hemispheric circulation patterns established weeks in advance. The specific resolution source—Wunderground's Le Bourget station data—is publicly accessible and historically reliable, eliminating ambiguity around measurement methodology or station changes. Any significant atmospheric blocking pattern or early summer heat dome development in late May would shift probability mass toward higher temperature brackets; conversely, Atlantic low-pressure systems would favour cooler outcomes.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on May 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Champions League Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.