Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s summer heat is governed by its coastal geography, where the Pacific Ocean typically caps daytime highs well below inland extremes. Historical data for mid-July at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) shows average maximums hovering between 75°F and 79°F, with temperatures exceeding 80°F occurring only during rare marine layer failures or strong inland heat domes pushing through the Golden Gate. The current 0% probability assigned to any outcome above 78°F aligns with this pattern, as the market heavily favours the 78–79°F range at 93%, reflecting the region’s consistent thermal ceiling under normal conditions [1].

Traders should monitor the Pacific High pressure system and any forecasted “heat dome” events from the Central Valley, which can occasionally breach the 80°F threshold at KSFO. A key catalyst is the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast for Northern California, particularly any mention of reduced marine cloud cover or anomalous westerly winds that might allow hotter air to penetrate the bay area. Recent climate models suggest a stable marine layer for mid-July 2026, reinforcing the market’s confidence in sub-80°F outcomes, though a sudden shift in wind direction could act as a low-probability but high-impact catalyst [2].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.