Highest temperature in San Francisco on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the daily maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco International Airport on 30 June 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit and sourced from Wunderground. Today’s conditions show a high of 67°F with sunny intervals and a fresh westerly breeze, consistent with the station’s typical June profile where highs rarely fall below 61°F or exceed 80°F[1][2]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside the highest range being bet on, likely because recent data indicates a cooler-than-average start to summer.

Historical context frames this probability sharply: SFO Airport has recorded its coldest first half of summer since 1965, with an average maximum of just 67.6°F through mid-July[5]. Climate normals for today show a typical maximum of 73°F, but the record high of 92°F was set in 1996, indicating that extreme heat is rare and not the baseline expectation[7][8]. Traders should watch for official heat advisories from the National Weather Service, scheduled marine layer breakdowns, and any sudden shifts in wind patterns that could push temperatures above 80°F[3][4]. A recent Reddit report confirms the anomalous cool trend, reinforcing why the market is pricing out extreme heat scenarios[5].

No bullet points, no headings, no moralising—just facts. The settlement window ends 2026-06-30T12:00:00Z, and the resolution hinges solely on Wunderground’s highest temperature for all times on that day. With current form showing persistent cool conditions and no catalysts for a sudden heat spike, the 0% probability aligns with empirical evidence rather than speculation. Traders should monitor real-time updates from BBC Weather and NOAA for any deviations from the established pattern[1][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in San Francisco on June 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.