Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 22?

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Market context

São Paulo's climate during late May sits firmly in the Southern Hemisphere's autumn season, with temperatures typically moderating from the summer peaks of December and January. The city's average high on 22 May across recent decades hovers around 24–26°C, though the Guarulhos airport station—located in the northern suburbs at modest elevation—can record variations depending on cloud cover, wind patterns from the Atlantic, and urban heat island effects. Historical data from Wunderground shows May 22 highs have ranged from approximately 20°C in cooler years to 29–30°C during warmer anomalies, with the most common outcomes clustering in the mid-to-upper 20s.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the day will not reach the highest temperature bracket offered in this market's resolution categories. This positioning reflects both seasonal norms and the fact that late autumn in São Paulo rarely produces extreme heat events. However, traders should monitor medium-range weather models from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) as May 2026 approaches, particularly any forecasts indicating warm air masses or high-pressure systems that could push temperatures into the upper 20s or low 30s. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and any lingering effects from broader climate patterns will influence whether conditions deviate from the 30-year climatological average for this specific date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.