Highest temperature in Seattle on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport will record its highest temperature on 16 August 2026, with settlement determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The market currently implies zero probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or conviction that conditions will remain unusually cool for mid-August in the Pacific Northwest.

Historical August temperatures at Sea-Tac show a median high around 79°F, with readings typically ranging between 75–85°F during this period. The station's all-time August maximum stands at 96°F, recorded in 1981, though such extremes occur roughly once per decade. Recent summers have produced occasional days exceeding 90°F, but sustained heat waves remain uncommon compared to inland regions. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects baseline expectations rather than any specific meteorological forecast, given that traders are pricing two years ahead with minimal seasonal pattern visibility at this distance.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal climate forecasts released by NOAA in the months preceding August 2026, which typically provide directional guidance on temperature anomalies. La Niña or El Niño conditions developing through 2025–2026 could materially shift Pacific Northwest weather patterns. Additionally, any significant volcanic activity or solar variability affecting atmospheric circulation would warrant reassessment. The settlement mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than National Weather Service summaries—introduces a technical dependency worth confirming closer to the resolution date.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seattle on August 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I trade Premier League prediction markets from the UK?

Yes. Polymarket has Premier League outcome markets (title winner, relegation, top scorer). For UK traders wanting GBP settlement and UKGC protection, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer Premier League futures and match markets. Betfair is the deepest liquidity venue for UK football exchange markets.