Highest temperature in Seattle on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle’s hottest reading on 5 August 2026 will come from Sea-Tac Airport, so the key variable is whether the afternoon warmth reaches the mid-80s or gets pinned closer to the low-80s. Current market pricing at 0% for YES implies the crowd is not yet assigning any meaningful chance to the final outcome, but that sits against a context where Seattle’s early-August highs commonly sit in the upper 70s to low 80s, with forecast pages for the date already showing values around 80-81°F and some models a touch higher.[1][5][7]

Comparable recent outcomes suggest the market can move quickly if the region gets a warm, dry ridge in place. WeatherSpark’s Sea-Tac history shows a 24-hour high of 84.0°F in early August, while local reporting has noted Sea-Tac’s longstanding record high of 88°F and heat-advisory conditions for parts of western Washington when temperatures are expected in the 85-90°F band.[2][14][6] That means anything close to 85°F is not a stretch in principle, even if it remains above the more typical August baseline.[5][16]

For traders, the main catalysts are the final short-range forecast updates, any late heat advisories, and whether afternoon marine influence holds the airport below the day’s peak inland warmth. The market resolves to the day’s highest temperature at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station as listed by Wunderground, so intra-day timing matters less than the realised maximum, but last-minute forecast shifts from Sea-Tac can still reprice expectations quickly.[4][17] Recent forecast pages already lean warm rather than cool, with several showing highs around 80-81°F and one daily forecast calling for about 81°F, so the market is most sensitive to whether guidance edges up towards 83-85°F or settles back nearer 78-80°F.[1][7][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seattle on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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