Highest temperature in Seattle on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle’s summer heat typically peaks in the mid-70s Fahrenheit, with July averages hovering between 55°F and 75°F and rain occurring on only 10% of days [2]. However, extreme outliers have shattered this norm: in a recent record-breaking event, temperatures at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport surged to 103°F by 5 p.m., setting a new high for the station [1]. This historical spike explains why the crowd-implied probability of 0% YES for any unusually high range is likely an overreaction to typical climate data, ignoring the documented capacity for triple-digit extremes in Western Washington.

Traders should monitor the Pacific Northwest’s atmospheric river patterns and high-pressure ridge forecasts leading into mid-July 2026, as these are the primary catalysts for heat domes that drive temperatures above 90°F. While no specific announcement has yet triggered a shift in the market, the dependency on real-time Wunderground data for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station means that any sudden forecast upgrades from the National Weather Service could rapidly alter pricing. The settlement window closing at 12:00Z on 16 July 2026 requires close attention to hourly temperature logs, as the market resolves solely on the day’s peak reading, not the average.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seattle on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.