Highest temperature in Seattle on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle’s late-July heat profile is usually modest rather than extreme, with typical highs around 75°F and cool nights near 57°F, so the market’s 0% YES pricing points to a reading well outside the normal seasonal band at Sea-Tac. July is also one of the drier months in the city, which matters because persistent cloud cover or showers can cap the day’s peak even when the broader summer pattern is warm.[1][2]

For comparable cases, the key reference is not Seattle’s downtown weather but the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport record used by the settlement source. Historical July conditions there generally cluster in the mid-70s to low-80s Fahrenheit, so a settlement range above that needs a genuine heat event rather than routine summer warmth. The current probability therefore reads as a statement that traders see the specific bucket as highly unlikely unless the airport sees an unusually strong warm-up.[1][3]

The main catalysts are the forecast updates for the airport itself, especially any signal of offshore flow, ridge strength, or unusually clear skies in the days before 23 July 2026. Because the market resolves off the day’s *highest* temperature at KSEA, early-morning cloud, afternoon marine push, and wind direction all matter more than the daily average, and a revised forecast can move expectations quickly if warmth is being held back or amplified.[3][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seattle on July 23?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.