Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s heat profile makes a **low-30s to mid-30s Celsius** outcome the base case, but the current 0% YES price sits against a run of exceptional recent readings rather than normal August climatology. Reuters reported Seoul was forecast near **39C** on 6 August as South Korea’s heatwave intensified, while Korean coverage said the capital reached **40.2C** in Nowon on 8 August, the first reading above 40C at a monitoring station in the city since 2018.[9][7] That matters because this market resolves off the **highest observation at Incheon Intl Airport Station** in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, so the relevant comparison is not Seoul-wide headlines but whether airport readings track the broader metro heat sufficiently to touch the listed bands.[2]

For traders, the key catalysts are the day’s intraday temperature path and any update to the Weather Underground observations table before the settlement cut-off, since the market can still move if the airport logs a late-afternoon peak and then revises it within the allowable window.[2] AccuWeather’s Seoul monthly guide shows forecast highs around **93–94°F** for 10–12 August, which is roughly **34–34.5C**, consistent with a hot but not record-chasing afternoon.[1][16] The main dependency is whether the current heatwave keeps pushing inland with enough strength to lift Incheon above the low-30s band; if cloud cover or a sea-breeze effect caps the airport, the market should remain anchored to 33–34C rather than any higher bin.[2][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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