Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's August weather patterns show consistent high temperatures, with historical data from Incheon International Airport indicating daily maxima typically range between 28–32°C during mid-August. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an expectation of temperatures below the lowest offered range or uncertainty about the specific resolution methodology tied to Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary section—a distinction that has proven material in previous weather markets where discrepancies between reporting formats created settlement disputes.

Comparable August 11th observations from prior years at Incheon show variability influenced by monsoon activity and atmospheric pressure systems. Between 2015 and 2024, recorded highs on this date ranged from 26.5°C to 31.8°C, with five instances exceeding 30°C. The absence of any YES positions at current odds reflects either extreme confidence in sub-range outcomes or limited trader familiarity with Incheon's specific thermal profile versus Seoul proper, where urban heat island effects can elevate readings by 1–2°C.

Traders should monitor Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly any advisories regarding Typhoon activity or upper-level ridge positioning that could suppress or elevate temperatures. The settlement window closing at midday UTC on August 11th creates a narrow resolution window; any weather station maintenance or data transmission delays at Incheon could affect final readings. Historical volatility in East Asian summer weather means late-season forecast updates often shift probability materially within 72 hours of the event date.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I trade Premier League prediction markets from the UK?

Yes. Polymarket has Premier League outcome markets (title winner, relegation, top scorer). For UK traders wanting GBP settlement and UKGC protection, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer Premier League futures and match markets. Betfair is the deepest liquidity venue for UK football exchange markets.