Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Incheon International Airport needs to print the day’s peak temperature for 3 August, and the market will settle on the highest reading recorded there across the day. The current 0% YES price sits against a forecast backdrop that is firmly hot rather than extreme: local media citing the Korea Meteorological Administration has Incheon around **32°C** for the day, with Seoul near **33–37°C** and heatwave warnings in force across the capital area[2][8][1].

The historical frame is straightforward: August in Seoul and the surrounding west coast is normally hot and humid, but the airport often runs a little cooler than the inland core because of maritime influence and cloud or shower disruption. That matters here because even on very hot days the daily max at Incheon can land several degrees below the regional headline figure, so a market priced at 0% YES is only really vulnerable if the airport gets a clean, dry, full-sun afternoon and the easterly flow strengthens heating west of the mountains[1][2][17].

For traders, the key catalysts are the next KMA short-range updates, any revision to the timing or intensity of afternoon cloud and showers, and whether the easterly pattern deepens enough to push the western side of the peninsula hotter than forecast[1][4]. The main upside risk is a hotter-than-expected afternoon with uninterrupted sun; the main downside is coastal moderation or rain bands clipping the airport. With local forecasts clustering Incheon around the low 30s and Seoul higher, the line depends less on the capital’s headline heat and more on whether the airport station can overperform its usual airport profile[2][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.