Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s late-summer heat is the key driver here, with forecasts pointing to another very hot afternoon rather than a mild cap on the day’s maximum. AccuWeather’s August outlook shows Seoul highs running from 81°F to 88°F this week, and the latest Korean coverage has flagged 4 August as the hottest day of the year so far, with a severe heat warning and an expected peak around 38°C in the capital region.[1][2][4]

For comparable cases, the market is being priced against a normal August in Seoul, where the average high is closer to the mid-20s Celsius and rain is common, but also against heatwave days that can run well above that base. Forecast desks differ a little on the exact top end: Asiae put Seoul/Incheon at 38°C/37°C respectively, while other services show lower Seoul-only highs in the high 20s to low 30s, which is why the Incheon airport reading matters more than the city headline.[3][12][15][19]

The main catalysts are the timing of the hottest part of the day, cloud build-up, and whether afternoon showers arrive early enough to clip the maximum before the settlement window closes. SBS reported that sporadic showers could form later in the day while the heat warning remains in force from 11:00 local time, so traders should watch for any updated KMA guidance, aviation observations around Incheon, and short-range forecast shifts that would move the peak temperature down by a degree or two.[2][4][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

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Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.