Highest temperature in Seoul on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport will determine the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero probability to the “YES” result. This implies the market expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range, likely due to an anticipated heatwave or unusually cool conditions. Historical data shows Incheon’s July highs typically reach 29–30°C, with extreme peaks recorded in recent years, such as 35.6°C in early July 2025 across South Korea[6]. The current 0% probability suggests traders believe the temperature will either be significantly lower than the range or exceed it by a wide margin, possibly due to a mispriced threshold or an unanticipated meteorological shift.

Traders should monitor daily updates from Wunderground and the Korea Meteorological Administration for real-time temperature readings, especially as the settlement window closes on 1 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC[5]. Recent reports indicate Incheon reached 30°C on 1 July 2026, with partly cloudy skies and light winds, which may push the day’s peak toward the upper limit of the range[1][8]. Any sudden changes in cloud cover, wind direction, or precipitation could alter the final reading. Additionally, global climate trends and regional heat patterns in East Asia may influence the outcome, so watching for announcements from meteorological agencies or climate monitoring bodies is critical for assessing whether the market’s 0% probability remains justified.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.