Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market resolves to the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 10 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Despite the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a "YES" outcome, the frontrunner is actually 28°C at 36%, with 29°C trailing at 24%[1]. This discrepancy suggests the market is pricing a specific range rather than a binary event, and traders must distinguish between the binary "YES" label and the actual temperature distribution.

Historical data frames this probability against extreme recent heatwaves. July marked the longest stretch of tropical nights in Seoul for 117 years, with overnight temperatures exceeding 25°C for 22 consecutive days, shattering a century-old record[2]. South Korea also recorded its second-hottest July since 1973, averaging 27.1°C, while Seoul hit 37.7°C in early July, the highest such reading in 117 years[6][8]. Average daily highs in Seoul for July typically range from 81°F to 85°F (27°C to 29°C), rarely exceeding 91°F (33°C)[5].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Incheon station, as the resolution source is explicitly tied to this specific dataset[1]. The primary catalyst is the continuation of the current super-hot tropical night streak, which has already broken historical norms for overnight warmth[2]. Any sudden shift in cloud cover or wind patterns could alter the peak daytime temperature, but the prevailing trend of record-breaking heat suggests temperatures will likely cluster around the 28°C to 29°C range rather than falling significantly lower.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.