Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces a critical heat threshold on 11 July 2026, with the Incheon International Airport station expected to record its daily peak under intense summer pressure. Historical data shows July highs in Seoul typically climb from 81°F to 85°F (27°C to 29°C), rarely exceeding 91°F (33°C), though extreme outliers have shattered norms [3]. Just days prior, the city hit 37.8°C, marking the hottest early July in 117 years and beating the 1908 record of 37.7°C, signalling a volatile warming trend that could push temperatures well above the seasonal average [1][5].

The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific high-temperature range suggests traders are either misreading the severity of this heatwave or betting on a sudden cool-down, despite South Korea recording its second-hottest July since 1973 with an average of 27.1°C [6]. With the all-time national record now at 41.0°C in Hongcheon, the atmospheric conditions favouring such extremes are active, making a low-probability outcome for moderate temperatures increasingly risky [2]. Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s hourly updates and Wunderground’s real-time feed for the Incheon station, as any deviation from the 88°F (31°C) average high could trigger rapid price swings [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.