Highest temperature in Seoul on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is bracing for its peak summer heat on 17 July 2026, with the Incheon International Airport station expected to record temperatures near the upper end of typical mid-July highs. The market currently prices a 0% chance of any outcome other than the implied frontrunner, yet Polymarket data shows 31°C as the dominant expectation at 76%, with 32°C or higher trailing at 22%[1]. This divergence suggests the 0% YES probability may reflect a mispricing or a specific binary framing not aligned with the underlying temperature-range resolution.

Historically, July in Seoul has seen extreme heat, with July 2025 marking the second-hottest July on record across South Korea, averaging 27.1°C nationwide[2]. Incheon, situated on the coast, often records slightly higher peaks than the city centre due to urban heat amplification and clear-sky conditions. Given this trend, temperatures reaching 31°C or above are well within the realm of recent precedent, making the current 0% probability for non-31°C outcomes appear statistically fragile.

Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for the Incheon station as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 17 July, and watch for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or monsoon activity that could suppress peak temperatures. The Korea Meteorological Administration’s real-time bulletins and local weather forecasts will be critical catalysts, especially if a heatwave intensifies ahead of the date. Any deviation from the 31°C frontrunner could trigger a sharp repricing as the day unfolds[1].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.