Highest temperature in Seoul on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 2 July 2026, Incheon International Airport is forecast to reach a maximum of 28°C, with sunny intervals and light showers possible later in the day[3][4]. This real-world projection directly contradicts the current crowd-implied 0% probability for any outcome above 26°C, suggesting a significant mispricing in the market. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, meaning the final recorded high temperature for the entire day will determine the resolution, not just the morning peak.

Historical data for July at Incheon shows daily highs typically climb from 80°F to 85°F (27°C to 29°C), rarely dipping below 74°F (23°C) or exceeding 91°F (33°C)[7]. Recent Polymarket activity for the same date in Seoul assigns a 39% chance to 28°C and 29% to 27°C, with 26°C at 19.3%[1], indicating traders expect temperatures in the 27–29°C range. The June 2 market resolved to 29°C with 100% certainty, reinforcing that early summer heat in this region consistently exceeds 26°C[2].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s live hourly updates for Incheon, as the final resolution depends on the highest temperature recorded at any time on 2 July[1]. Any sudden shift in cloud cover or shower intensity could alter the peak, though current Met Office forecasts remain stable at 27–28°C[3]. The key dependency is the 12:00 UTC cutoff; if temperatures rise after 11:00 UTC, the market could resolve higher than current expectations. No suspensions, injuries, or lineup changes apply—this is purely a weather-driven event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 2?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.