Highest temperature in Seoul on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is set to experience its peak summer heat on 21 July 2026, with the Incheon International Airport station expected to record the day’s highest temperature. Current market data shows the crowd has overwhelmingly priced in 27°C as the outcome, assigning an 86% probability to this range, while 28°C holds a distant 10% share. The 0% YES probability for the current market implies a mismatch with the frontrunner, suggesting the market may be misaligned or the YES condition refers to an unlisted extreme threshold.

Historical July averages for Seoul indicate daytime maximums typically reach 28°C, accompanied by high humidity and frequent rainfall, with 16 rainy days and 358mm of monthly precipitation expected [2]. Recent monsoon activity in early July 2026 has already pushed heat indices to 31°C in inland areas, with daytime highs exceeding 30°C nationwide, indicating that 27°C could be a conservative forecast if the monsoon persists or intensifies [3]. Traders should monitor Wunderground’s daily history for the Incheon station as the primary settlement source, watching for real-time updates on heat index trends and rainfall intensity that could shift the temperature toward 28°C or higher. Any sudden break in the monsoon pattern or a surge in apparent temperature above 31°C would act as a key catalyst for repricing the 27°C frontrunner.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.