Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul experiences peak summer heat in late July, with the city's inland location and urban heat island effect typically driving temperatures well above 30°C during this period. The resolution will depend on the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport's weather station on 25 July 2026, which serves as the official measurement point for the region.

Historical data from the past two decades shows Seoul's daily highs in late July consistently exceed 32°C, with many years recording peaks between 34–36°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting specific seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder market pending clearer atmospheric patterns. Comparable July dates at Incheon typically see highs in the 33–35°C range, though extreme heat events have pushed readings above 37°C in recent summers, particularly during heat waves driven by Pacific high-pressure systems.

The critical variable for this market will be whether a Tibetan high-pressure system establishes itself over the Korean peninsula in late July 2026, a pattern that historically correlates with the most intense heat. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts released by the Korea Meteorological Administration in the months preceding July, as these typically provide guidance on whether conditions favour above-average or below-average temperatures. Real-time tracking of atmospheric indices and any issued heat-wave warnings in early July will sharpen probability estimates closer to the settlement date.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.