Highest temperature in Seoul on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s late-July heat profile keeps this market anchored to a fairly narrow band, because historical climate data puts average July highs near 27–29°C while WeatherSpark shows the clearest day of the month is often 31 July, with daily highs rarely exceeding 91°F, or about 33°C.[20][19] AccuWeather’s July 2026 outlook is warmer than that long-run average, with daily highs mostly in the 80s Fahrenheit and a 31 July high listed around 84°F, which would normally map to the low 30s Celsius and sit comfortably above the long-run July mean.[1]

The current 0% crowd-implied price looks detached from the live heat setup around the capital. Yonhap reported that South Korea was under a continuing heatwave pattern, with Seoul already at 26.8°C at 8 a.m. and forecasts calling for highs of up to 35°C in much of the country, while SBS said clear weather and no significant rain were expected to keep intense heat in place through the following week.[5][2] For this market, the key question is not whether Seoul is warm, but whether Incheon International Airport edges into an extreme afternoon reading or stays in the low-30s Celsius range implied by the latest outlooks.[5][1]

Traders should watch the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range updates and any shift in cloud cover, sea breeze, or shower timing, because coastal influences around Incheon can cap the day’s peak even when inland Seoul is oppressive.[3][2] The settlement source is the daily history page for Incheon Intl Airport Station on Wunderground, so late revisions matter only insofar as they affect the recorded maximum before the window closes at midday UTC.[Market description]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.