Highest temperature in Seoul on July 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is currently experiencing extreme heat as early July temperatures have surged to record levels, with the city hitting 37.8°C on 8 July, the highest ever recorded during the first ten days of the month since records began[1]. This historical benchmark provides the critical context for interpreting the current 0% probability assigned to the market, as it suggests the settlement temperature will likely fall within a range that excludes this specific peak or that the market is pricing in a different resolution range entirely. The average high for July in Seoul typically sits around 35°C (86°F), but humidity often pushes the felt temperature over 34°C (93°F), making the 37.8°C reading an exceptional outlier rather than a standard expectation[4].

Traders must monitor the immediate short-range forecast from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which currently indicates rain with a 60% probability of precipitation and a felt temperature of 29°C, a significant drop from the recent peak[6]. The onset of the monsoon season (Jangma), which typically lasts from late June to mid-July, is the primary catalyst that could suppress temperatures below the record high, as heavy rainfall is concentrated in central inland cities like Seoul during this period[4]. Any announcement regarding the timing of the monsoon's retreat or sudden shifts in weather patterns before the settlement window closes on 8 July 2026 will be the decisive factor in whether the temperature reaches the range containing the 37.8°C record or remains within the more typical seasonal band[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 8?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.