Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 10 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport, the primary meteorological station for the region. Early summer in South Korea typically brings warm, humid conditions as the monsoon season approaches, with daily highs commonly ranging between 24–28°C in mid-June, though heat waves can push temperatures considerably higher.

Historical data from Incheon shows that extreme heat on this date is plausible but not routine. The station recorded 31.2°C on 10 June 2019 and 29.8°C on 10 June 2015, indicating that temperatures above 30°C occur roughly once per decade on this specific date. More broadly, Seoul experiences its hottest June days in the final week of the month; early-to-mid June typically sits 2–3°C cooler than late June peaks. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a threshold substantially above historical norms for this date.

The primary variable affecting settlement will be atmospheric pressure systems and any early-season heat dome positioning over the Korean peninsula. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes 10-day forecasts in late May and early June; traders should monitor whether any high-pressure systems are forecast to stall over the region during the settlement window. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the preceding months can influence June temperatures, though their effects remain probabilistic rather than deterministic. Real-time forecast updates from 5–7 June will provide the most actionable data for assessing whether conditions favour above-average warmth on the specific settlement date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.