Highest temperature in Seoul on June 19?

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Market context

Seoul’s June heat settled on the **31°C** bucket, and the market is already pricing that as a complete lock, with the crowd-implied probability at **0% for every other outcome**. The relevant settlement point is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon Intl Airport Station on 19 June, so the key issue is not the city headline figure but the station reading that Wunderground will use for final resolution.[1][3]

That leaves little historical ambiguity: Incheon’s mid-June climate normally sits in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, so a 31°C print is entirely in line with seasonal norms rather than an outlier. The Met Office forecast for Incheon showed a **31°C** daytime maximum on 19 June, matching the market’s frontrunner and helping explain why alternative bands such as **22°C or below** have been priced out completely.[2][7]

For traders, the only meaningful catalysts are the station’s final observations and any late-morning temperature peak before the settlement cut-off. The market closes against the highest reading for the day, so a late rise above 31°C would matter more than the midday forecast, while cloud cover, sea breeze, or a sudden convective burst could still cap the high if the local marine influence builds in. The aviation weather feed for Incheon also pointed to a maximum near **31°C**, reinforcing that the decisive variable is whether the airport station ever printed above that level during the day.[2][4][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.