Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24?

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Market context

On 24 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the resolution sourced from Wunderground’s daily high for that station. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome above the baseline suggests the market expects temperatures to remain within a narrow, historically typical range, despite recent extreme heatwaves across South Korea.

Historical June data for Seoul shows average daily highs rising from 77°F to 81°F (25°C to 27°C), rarely exceeding 87°F (31°C) [3]. Recent records shattered in early June 2026, with 59 of 97 stations hitting their highest June averages ever, including Busan at 26.2°C [1]. However, Incheon’s coastal location typically moderates extremes compared to inland cities like Daegu, where temperatures reached record highs [1]. This geographic buffer supports the low probability of extreme highs, aligning with the 0% crowd sentiment.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s hourly updates for Incheon on 24 June, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns could alter the daily high. The Korea Meteorological Administration’s latest heatwave bulletin, issued 20 June 2026, notes that while record-breaking heat persists, coastal areas like Incheon are less prone to extreme spikes than inland regions [1]. No major weather disruptions are forecast, but real-time data from Wunderground remains the definitive catalyst for settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.