Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

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Market context

Seoul is entering its peak summer window, with June historically delivering daily highs that climb from 77°F to 81°F, rarely dipping below 68°F or exceeding 87°F[2]. The market’s current 0% probability for a low-temperature outcome aligns with this established thermal trajectory, as the city has just experienced its hottest June on record since 1973, averaging 22.9°C nationally[8]. Recent data from 2025 shows Seoul hitting 35.8°C during the summer, while the entire nation endured its hottest average summer temperature since 1973, with an average of 25.7°C from June through August[5][7]. This historical form suggests that a temperature below 20°C on 25 June 2026 is statistically implausible, reinforcing the crowd’s dismissal of the low-range outcome.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, as the resolution hinges exclusively on the highest recorded temperature for all times on that day[1]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 25 June 2026, meaning any sudden shift in weather patterns—such as an unexpected cold front or cloud cover—could alter the final reading, though such events are uncommon in late June[2]. Recent news highlights South Korea’s record-breaking heat in 2025, with Hongcheon reaching 41.0°C, the highest ever recorded in the country, indicating a trend toward more extreme summer temperatures[3]. Watch for official meteorological bulletins from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which may provide early warnings of temperature anomalies that could impact the market’s final settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.