Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s temperature on 10 August will be settled from the **highest reading at Shanghai Pudong International Airport** in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, so the key number is the intraday peak rather than the rounded high in the summary box. With the market currently at **0% YES**, traders are effectively pricing in an outcome below the lowest settlement band, which is a strong signal that they are anchoring to an unusually cool, wet day rather than a standard Shanghai August profile.[6][15]

That frame matters because Shanghai is normally hot in August, with climatological highs around the low 30s Celsius, and recent August histories have repeatedly produced peaks in the mid-30s Celsius, including 35.5°C on 10 August in the historical examples shown by TravelChinaGuide and 38°C on 8 August 2024 in WorldWeatherOnline’s archive.[14][8] Against that backdrop, a zero-implied chance on a high-temperature band suggests the crowd is treating this as a materially suppressed heat event, not a routine summer reading.[14][8]

The main catalysts are the live station observations through the day and any shift in the local forecast track for rain, cloud cover and wind, because those factors determine whether the airport’s maximum temperature can escape the low-30s range. The current outlook from Timeanddate shows overcast conditions, flash-flood risk, 99% precipitation chance and an 83/78°F forecast for Shanghai, while WeatherAPI’s recent history for 8 August already showed a max of 33.4°C, underlining how quickly the line can move if convection clears or stalls.[15][5] The relevant dependency is simple: if the airport stays under persistent rain and cloud, the settlement band should stay compressed; if midday breaks emerge, the high can rise quickly into a materially warmer bucket.[6][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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