Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's summer weather in late July typically sits at the upper end of the city's annual temperature range. Historical data from Pudong International Airport shows that temperatures on 25 July have ranged between 32°C and 37°C over the past two decades, with 2013 recording 37.2°C and 2003 reaching 37.8°C as notable peaks. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical weather records for the airport station, which captures hourly readings throughout the day. July is consistently Shanghai's hottest month, with afternoon highs regularly exceeding 35°C during the latter weeks.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the market mechanics or anticipating conditions outside historical norms. Factors affecting the outcome include the East Asian summer monsoon pattern, which influences moisture levels and cloud cover across the region, and any developing typhoon systems that could suppress temperatures through increased cloud and precipitation. The China Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal forecasts and weekly outlooks that would provide early signals of anomalous conditions. Traders should monitor late-June forecasts from major meteorological services, as these typically offer reliable guidance for early-August conditions. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 25 July, meaning only temperatures recorded up to that point count toward resolution.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 25?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.