Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's peak temperature on 28 July 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. July represents the height of summer in Shanghai, with the city typically experiencing sustained heat and humidity during this period. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the resolution date, meaning only temperatures recorded up to that point will count towards the final reading.

Shanghai's July temperatures have historically clustered in the 32–36°C range, with extreme readings occasionally pushing toward 40°C during particularly intense heat waves. The city's location on the Yangtze River Delta exposes it to monsoonal influences that can either suppress or amplify peak daily temperatures depending on atmospheric conditions. Recent decades show increasing frequency of days exceeding 35°C during mid-to-late July, though the specific outcome on any given date remains contingent on real-time weather systems rather than long-term trends alone.

Traders should monitor weather forecasts released in the week preceding 28 July, particularly those from the China Meteorological Administration and international models tracking pressure systems across East Asia. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during late July could substantially alter Shanghai's weather patterns, either bringing cooler, wetter conditions or intensifying heat through atmospheric circulation changes. The current 0% probability assigned to the market suggests traders are either awaiting clearer forecast data or treating this as a baseline position pending catalyst information closer to the settlement date.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.