Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is poised for another hot, humid afternoon, but the key number for this market is the highest temperature logged at Pudong Airport before the midday settlement cut-off. The current crowd pricing of 0% for YES sits against a forecast cluster that is materially warm: AccuWeather’s July outlook shows Shanghai daily highs broadly in the high 80s to low 100s Fahrenheit, with 31 July listed around 91°F, while other July guides describe the month as the city’s hottest period. [1][7][8]

For calibration, Shanghai’s late-July climatology usually supports peak heat rather than a cool outlier. WeatherSpark says 31 July is the clearest day of the month with 41% odds of clear to partly cloudy conditions, and TravelChinaGuide puts the late-July average around 34.2°C, which is consistent with a high-30s Celsius outcome if sunshine holds. Comparable forecasts for today from other services sit in a similar band: the Hong Kong Government’s city forecast listed Shanghai at 29–38°C yesterday, and the Met Office showed a Shanghai maximum of 37°C with low rain probabilities, underlining that a sub-30°C top end would be distinctly abnormal for this setup. [13][12][6][11]

The trader watch-list is straightforward: whether cloud, showers or thunderstorms build over Pudong during the warmest part of the day, and whether the airport station records its peak before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Current hourly and ten-day output from AccuWeather and Weather.com both keep Shanghai hot, with elevated humidity and non-trivial rain chances later in the day, so any earlier-than-expected rain band or persistent marine cloud would be the main drag on the maximum. [10][14][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.