Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 8 July 2026, the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a critical metric for this prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome above the lowest range. Historical data reveals that July in Shanghai is consistently hot and humid, with average highs typically ranging between 26°C and 31°C, yet frequently soaring to 35°C or higher during peak afternoon hours [2][7]. Recent records from early July 2026 show temperatures hitting 37°C on 7 July and 36°C on 8 July, indicating that the 0% YES probability is likely a mispricing given the region’s established thermal behaviour [5].

Traders must monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation could alter the day’s maximum reading [2]. While early July has seen broken to scattered clouds with temperatures near 34–37°C, the forecast for mid-July suggests daily highs could reach 38°C or more, aligning with the 2025 peak of 38°C recorded in the same month [2][5]. No major weather announcements are pending, but the dependency on hourly Wunderground data means that any unexpected rain event or overcast conditions before 3 PM could suppress the peak temperature, whereas clear skies will likely push it toward the upper historical limits [2][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 8?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.