Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 19?

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Market context

Shanghai’s heat on 19 June will hinge on whether the city gets the kind of humid, rain-disrupted summer day that caps out in the high 20s, or a clearer spell that pushes the airport reading into the low 30s. June in Shanghai is typically a warm, moisture-laden month: on cloudy or rainy days highs often sit around 25–30°C, while sunny days more commonly reach 30–35°C.[2]

That backdrop makes the current 0% YES pricing look detached from the seasonal base rate. The market is resolving against the highest temperature at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, and comparable June conditions there usually produce daily highs centred in the upper 20s to low 30s rather than cool-weather outcomes.[5] Polymarket’s own market page currently shows 31°C as the 100% frontrunner, with all lower bands at 0%, which is consistent with a warm-season setup rather than an outlier cold day.[1]

For traders, the key catalysts are the local forecast into the 19th, especially cloud cover, rainfall timing and any shift in the monsoon pattern that affects whether afternoon heating is suppressed. Airport readings can be pulled down by early showers, sea-breeze effects and persistent overcast, but they can also spike quickly if rain clears before the daily peak. The settlement source is Wunderground’s history page for Shanghai Pudong International Airport, so the final print will depend on that station’s recorded maximum rather than a city-wide average.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

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